Overoptimism propels Seattle light rail delays

Seismic challenges with unstable soil add $72 million and two-year delay

Author

Trip Edwards
February 13, 2024

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Federal Way Link Extension, courtesy of HDR.

Headline: Seismic challenges with unstable soil were missed in initial studies, adding $72 million and a two-year delay on Sound Transit’s railway extension in Seattle.

So What: Megaprojects - infrastructure projects with a price tag of at least $1 billion - are often over budget (9 out of 10) and frequently blaze past their target completion dates. But why? Mckinsey points to three main reasons, the first of which - overoptimism and overcomplexity - sheds some light on recently identified seismic challenges with The Federal Way Link Extension project in Seattle.

Federal Way Link Extension, courtesy of Sound Transit.

Under the Surface: The Federal Way Link Extension adds approximately 7.8 miles of light rail from the Angle Lake light rail station at South 200th Street in the City of SeaTac to the City Center area in Federal Way. The extension generally parallels State Route 99 and Interstate 5, with stations in Kent/Des Moines, StarLake in Kent, and Federal Way Downtown. The Federal Way Link Final Environmental Impact Statement was issued on November 18, 2016, pursuant to the State Environmental Policy Act (SEPA) and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). During the initial environmental impact analysis, Sound Transit conducted 82 geotechnical soil borings and installed 32 groundwater monitoring devices (piezometers) to characterize the geology along the preferred pathway, but waited to conduct additional geotechnical borings along the corridor during the final design phase. Enter overoptimism. According to Mckinsey, “in order to justify a project [and entice bids], sometimes costs and timelines are systematically underestimated. Project managers competing for funding massage the data until they come under the limit of what is deemed affordable. From the outset, such projects are on a fast track to failure.”

Machines I wish I owned

Big tree harvester.

According to Sound Transit motion filings, contractor Kiewit Corporation gave notice in late 2020 claiming that the soil south of South 259th Place and alongside I-5 in Kent, where tracks will go between the freeway and McSorley Wetland, was not as strong as represented in preconstruction geotechnical records. After further investigation and a soil section collapse in July-2022, Sound Transit agreed that, “soil in the area would have the potential to liquefy [during a large earthquake], causing the adjacent slope to fail and slide.” Engineers then designed an alternative: a 500-foot-long bridge to better absorb seismic forces.

Net, Net: While advocating for more transparency and rigor during site feasibility and environmental impact studies might cause the hair on the back of your neck to stand in violent opposition (death to more paperwork, more oversight, and more bureaucratic studies!), perhaps there’s worthy value in sparing future headaches and delays. Let’s be honest, you’ll have to do the paperwork eventually. Then again, perhaps as engineers, we are more adept at solving problems on the fly once we’re already stuck into a project vs knowing full well what we’re getting ourselves into at the onset. Food for thought.

The Industry Scoop

  • New method monitors grid stability with hydropower signals: Scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, have developed an algorithm that utilizes signals from pumped storage hydropower projects to predict electric grid stability. By capturing distinct signals during the shutdown of pumps in pumped storage hydropower, the algorithm, combined with data from low-cost grid sensors, provides real-time and highly accurate estimations of grid inertia, offering critical situational awareness for grids increasingly relying on intermittent renewable power. (Source: TechXplore)

  • Congress members introduce resolution to halt FHWA’s greenhouse gas performance measures: Republican members of Congress, led by Sens. Shelley Moore Capito and Kevin Cramer, have introduced a resolution to overturn the Federal Highway Administration's (FHWA) greenhouse gas performance measures. This move, supported by numerous stakeholders from various industries, follows opposition to FHWA's rule issued in November, with critics arguing that FHWA lacks the authority to establish such measures. (Source: Landline Media)

  • Public utilities fall short on wildfire mitigation: Utility companies in the U.S., particularly Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) and Hawaiian Electric, are facing criticism for alleged safety shortcomings and a failure to assess and mitigate wildfire risks, leading to devastating consequences. Critics argue that a focus on protecting profits and a lack of state oversight have contributed to wildfires, such as the 2018 Paradise fire in California and the 2023 Lahaina fire in Hawaii, with concerns raised about utility-caused wildfires across multiple states. The lack of competition in the industry and significant political influence of utilities also play a role in maintaining favorable policies. (Source: CNBC)

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